2010 NFL Draft Order and Mock Draft Overview:
1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
While this pick has become the popular choice over the month of March, I'd like to remind you that I've had Bradford in this position since early January. Their draft decisions over the last decade have backfired time and again (with the exception of Steven Jackson). Sure-thing talent has wilted, while players they have passed on have gone to pro bowl after pro bowl. Some blame the Rams for poor drafting, but the answer may very well lie deeper in the organization. Could it be that systemic failure in the front office and coaching staff has mis-used and ruined the talent they've chosen? Hard to believe that a team not run by Al Davis has drafted that poorly.
Hard as it is to not draft Suh, he is #3 on their board. The Rams need a QB, so their decision comes down to Bradford of Clausen. While there are arguments on both sides, for me it is a maturity concern with Clausen. No, I don't have the luxury of seeing him function in practice and off the field, but I did watch him play several games and listened to post-game interviews. To be a QB in the NFL, you have to be smart, and maybe a little arrogant. But you also need the maturity and humbleness mixed in to run your team and stay on the same page with your players. I give Bradford the nod in this category, and that edges him above Clausen.
The Rams have passed on several prospects over the past three years, and some have questioned why they didn't take Sanchez in 2009. The answer is two-fold: 1) Sanchez has done nothing to convince many of us that he will be a top-tier franchise QB. 2) 12 months ago, the 2010 draft promised to be a bevy of top QB talent, and the Rams were pretty much guaranteed to be drafting in the top three positions. Well, the Rams lived up to their part by earning the top draft pick. Sanchez did his part with a slew of INTs and a QB rating of 63, despite being pulled along to the playoffs. However, the QBs in this draft do not include Jake Locker, and an injury to Bradford and questions surrounding other QBs have led to uncertainty on the QB front.
To make this decision, the Rams need to revisit draft room discussions from last year. I have to believe someone said "we could draft Sanchez, but let's be realistic. We aren't going to win many games this year, so aren't we better off waiting on the QB position until next season and grabbing Bradford or Locker?" Had Bradford come out in 2009, he likely would have been the top draft pick. Aside from getting injured, he did nothing this year to make anyone believe he isn't going to be a great franchise QB. Yes, the injury is understated there, but similar injury concerns surrounded Drew Brees when he left San Diego. Sorry, Miami. Shoulders do heal... so expect the Rams to attempt to mend their QB picture. Anyone care to bet on if they can ruin Bradford, too.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska
The Lions really need some help on the offensive line. Stafford can't keep getting hit like he has been. While the defense also needs a lot of work, there are too many holes to fill in that unit to make the defense competitive in 2010, so they should concentrate on making the offense NFL-worthy. O Line and LT is at the top of that list, and Okung is game-ready... but since when have the Lions made a habit of making the smart move?
Yes... Suh is the safe choice here, and he will be a huge presence on the D Line. He'll make the Lions better, and he will be able to learn from some recently acquired veterans. In a few years this defense might actually be good, and Suh will be a big reason why. While, offensive line is more pressing, and Okung is the type of LT most teams dream of, look for Detroit to grab the best OT left after the 1st Round frenzy at the position. Which would give them Suh and maybe Saffold, instead of Okung and maybe Odrick. I'm liking door #2 myself.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma
The Buccaneers defense has really fallen from grace since Gruden and Sapp left. With the Rams taking a QB, the Bucs get just what they need to bring a little swagger back to their defense. While not as touted as Suh, the real McCoy in this draft promises to be a pro-bowl type athlete. And if your only negative is you aren't Suh - well - that's pretty impressive! They will be tempted with Berry, but getting some pressure on the QB always makes your DBs look better. And I do have a dark-horse possibility here that the Lions may do what they need to do and draft Okung, leaving Suh in Tampa Bay.
4. Washington Redskins - Russell Okung, OT Oklahoma State
The signing of McNabb may lead the Redskins to look past the kind of guy Snyder likes… Clausen. He is high on the Risk / Reward scale with a flashy pedigree. The lack of a long-term agreement with McNabb could still leave Clausen as an option here, but not likely. Instead, the Redskins fill their biggest need with the 2nd best player on the board, and the class of the OT class. Okung should be a solid LT for years to come.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT Iowa
The Chief fans are all set to take Eric Berry and start working on their defense. Yes, he is the logical choice and would combine need and talent. But the Chiefs need a stud at LT to protect their franchise, and like to follow relative values of positions. This double whammy will lead to a selection of Trent Williams (whom I had in this spot earlier) or Bulaga. I just can't get the images of Bradford writhing on the turf following another sack surrendered by Trent. Bulaga is an athletic freak, showing a stable blocking stance and a killer instinct. I'm not as high on Bryan "T-Rex" Bulaga as others... he's a bit slow and his reach - well, I just covered that.
Huh... well, Seattle, we gave you the best defensive player in Curry in 2009, and now we are leaving Berry for you. Are we finally even for stealing Dave Krieg when Behring and Flores tried to dismantle your franchise?
6. Seattle Seahawks - Eric Berry, S Tennessee
For those of you expecting Seattle to take Bruce Campbell, Trent Williams or Anthony Davis, some of my later comments will clarify my perspectives on those players. Unless the Chiefs, et al allow Okung to fall to 6, there isn't an OT worthy of a pick here. It makes little sense to take the #3 OT in the draft when a comparable blocker will be available at pick 14. The fact is that exchanging Gibbs and Bates for Knapp will do more for Seattle's struggling offense than any player they can add. The addition of Whitehurst should allow Seattle to put off questions regarding the future of the QB position, and the talent pool of throwers in 2011 should be better than what we are seeing this draft (didn't we hear that last year?).
Even with Clausen still on the board, a talent like Eric Berry doesn't come around that often. Seattle has had issues getting pressure on the QB, which has allowed opposing passing attacks to shred their secondary, but a lack of speed at the Safety positions sure didn't help. The Seahawks need a tall, speedy defender that can play CB, S, or the nickel position to deal with the likes of Fitzgerald and Crabtree. Having Berry fall to them at #6 is just too good to pass up, as he is one of the top athletes in this talent-rich class. He also fills a big need for the Seahawks . Oh... and yes, KC. We're good now.
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7. Cleveland Browns - Earl Thomas, S Texas
There is still a chance that Holmgren looks to grab a QB here, but the $7M being spent on Delhomme makes that unlikely. That, and he hasn't been a strong proponent of Clausen. He has filled in most areas of glaring need, making this spot wide open with options. While I'd expect Cleveland to try to parlay that leverage to trade down and also look to acquire a missing 2nd round pick, Holmgren will look to do what he failed to do when building Seattle's Super Bowl team - focus on defense. While they hoped to get Berry, Thomas is a rising talent that some have ranked as the best Safety in the draft. His combined size and speed are attractive, even if his youth is concerning. This may be too early for Thomas, but he fits Cleveland's needs following the loss of Pool.
8. Oakland Raiders - Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame
Oh, the joy of winter meetings, combine scouting, and the NFL Draft. That chance to polish our prognostication skills and plan out a scheme. To look at the talent level and make a prediction on the NFL draft... on what Al Davis will do next to break the hearts of Raider Nation. But you must admit, some of them at least have it coming. I saw video coverage of the self-proclaimed mayor of Raider Nation. Am I the only one that is bothered by that? Since when do nations have mayors? So much for high school civics...
OK - where was I? Oh, yeah... trying to figure out what Al Davis will do to mess the pick up. The Raiders won't win with their current QB options, and even Davis knows this. His failed attempt to grab McNabb will push him to Clausen, as I really don't see Seattle or Cleveland being interested. Reviews of Clausen are all over the board, and my biggest issue with him is that he went to Notre Dame. Yes, being a college football purist, I hate all things Irish (only on the gridiron). But his poor decision on where to go to college needs to be ignored to some extent, so let's get to the on-field concern, which will be tipped balls. He has height, but his low release point will cause issues. Perhaps that mechanical issue can be adjusted, but that change could equate to a drop in velocity that also won't fly. But if you consider his overwhelming success in a pro style offense at Notre Dame (come on... 28 TDs and 4 INTs is sick), the draw for Clausen will be too much for Al to walk away from. I know very few people are calling this, as they claim Davis doesn't want to admit he was wrong, but there are other pressures in the front office.
9. Buffalo Bills - Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma
Buffalo has holes on offense and defense, and they likely enter the day expecting to draft Rolando McClain here. But with Williams still on the board, they will look to move Bell to a reserve role and try to improve protection for... um... who is their QB again? With solid combine workouts, Trent Williams is making a strong argument as a top LT. His arm reach is average at best, but a quick 40 time and good agility make him a great fit for most blocking schemes. As long as you can look past his missed block that led to the season-destroying hit on Bradford... and several hits and sacks on Jones... Williams is your guy. While some boards have him as high as #2, I think "experts" are looking at workouts at the expense of what actually happened on the field. This is too high for Williams, but he will be gone in the top 10. And his selection is what could very well set the Bills up for a high draft position in the anticipated QB-heavy 2011 draft.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Rolando McClain, ILB Alabama
Jacksonville started Free Agency with several glaring needs, not the least of which is to put fans back in the seats… lest the team vacate for LA. They've tended to many of their staffing issues, allowing for some flexibility. Tebow could be one short-term effort to attract some Gators to the stands in his home town, but I'm not certain Tim's followers would be as loyal if he was struggling on a team doing the same. Novelties wear off quickly when a team is losing, so if this blooming romance has a prayer, it will have to wait for the 2nd round. We all expect to see Jacksonville do everything they can to work out a trade with this pick, but if they do stay put they need to shore up their LB corps. I do see Spiller as an option here... he's a dynamic back that could add some excitement to Drew's power. But that is a luxury they can't afford, leading them to the best LB in the draft. Jacksonville may still look to deal in the 2nd round and take a gamble that Tebow can convert to an NFL QB.
11. Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State
The love affair with Brandon Marshall reads like a Hollywood couple… from good, to bad, to reheb and then nirvana, and theb back to shambles. Denver needs to rally the WR position with an elusive, sure-handed receiver to step in and help the fans forget about what Brad did to Jenif... sorry - I mean what Brandon did to the Bronco faithful. A great trade with Chicago puts the Broncos in position to draft the best WR on the board and bring in a guy that wants to play week in and week out. Bryant may be dropping on some draft boards due to maturity and suspect workouts, but he has the highest potential in this WR pool. McDs has to regain some respect, and he needs an offensive playmaker to get his team back on track.
12. Miami Dolphins - Dan Williams, DT Tennessee
There is little doubt that Miami needs to bolster their defensive line next year, but they also need help in the passing game (OK - receiving game). Given that this is a fairly broad class at WR, and with Bryant dropping off the board right before Parcells could snatch him up, look for the Dolphins to address this position later and add a pass rusher that can mix things up in the run defense as well. Derrick Morgan would be a nice add, but Miami has been looking for a big NT to stuff the middle. That is what Williams does best. As for Golden Tate... while a possibility, we all know Bill doesn't like to gamble on WRs high in the first round, and there is a lot of pass-catching talent in later rounds. Take the nose tackle that gives them exactly what they want with this pick, and add other pieces later.
13. San Francisco 49ers - Joe Haden, CB Florida
Two first round picks should help the 49ers fill some holes, and will make them very competitive in the NFC West next year. The Cardinals look to be losing too many players to stay competitive in 2010, but San Francisco still needs to prepare to cover Fitzgerald and Housh (and possibly Brandon Marshall). Those can be some high expectations, but Haden is one of the most talented players in the draft and should be the shut-down corner San Fransico needs to be competitive.
14. Seattle Seahawks - Charles Brown, OT USC
Seattle needs to address their LT concerns, and there are several options in the first round. Depending on the player they covet, we might see the Seahawks try to trade down to later in the 1st round and add a 3rd round pick this year (or a 2nd rounder in 2011 when they might still need to grab a QB). And the best thing about their trading power is they have so many needs (perceived or otherwise), no team can feel secure that their guy won't get nabbed here unless they are looking at the LB position.
Charlie Brown (he likes it when I call him that) not only has a connection with Carrol and experience in a zone blocking system, but after watching tape on the top 8 O Lineman in this draft, Brown is #2 on my board. He may be a little undersized, but he is young and was able to bulk up for the combine without sacrificing speed. For those of you who think I'm nuts on this one, compare his performance vs. Cal to that of Campbell and tell me I'm wrong. Brown will be the surprise performer in the OL field. He mirrors DEs as well as anybody in this draft, and usually seems to be in the right place. Although he did give up on plays too early at times, he will learn to run from whistle to whistle. At times vs. Boston College he looked a little lost, but he is quick and has great footwork.
That said, don't be surprised to see Seattle grab the likes of Derrick Morgan if he is still on the board here, and work to get back to the start of the 2nd round or late 1st round in an attempt to get Brown, or trust that Saffold will be there at 60. They need to work on their defense if they are to have any success in 2010.
And the Seahawk's front office has been rather busy, so in case they haven't gotten this far yet: Dear Denver Broncos - thank you for your late-season slump that moved Seattle's pick from a late- to mid-round draft position. This act of charity will help turn the Seahawks around in 2010.
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15. New York Giants - Derrick Morgan, DE Georgia Tech
For those of you that thought you witnessed a large meteor crash to earth last fall, it was actually the Giant Defense plummeting. They have a lot of work to do to fill holes on this unit; expect this All-American to step in and get to work. Morgan has top-10 talent, and has great board value here as well. He is a strong end with a good burst when he's dead-red on the QB. He is solid against the run, but sometimes at the expense of getting to the QB, and is the best 4-3 DE in the draft. If he is on the board here, this is a no-brainer.
16. Tennessee Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE South Florida
The Titans appeared to be on the opposite side of the pulley of the Giants last year. Giants were up, and the Titans were down. The Giants fell from grace, and the Titans soared. Put these two colossal teams together last year and what a record our all-mythology team would have had.
Seeing Derrick Morgan fall off the board right before them will break the Titans' hearts, as he is just what this team needs. So if he is on the board at 14, look for the Titans to offer a 4th round pick to Seattle to move up 2 spots and nab him. If not, P-P will help the Titans fill a hole created by the loss of Van den Bosch. for the Titans.